The Luxury Watch Market in 2026: Prices, Supply and What Changed

The luxury watch market in 2026 is a two-tier market. At retail, Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille still allocate their most requested references rather than sell them from the window, and list prices have risen almost every year since 2020. On the secondary market, the premiums that peaked in the spring of 2022 have unwound for most steel sports models, so a Submariner or a Royal Oak now costs far less over retail than it did four years ago, while the scarcest references, most of them in precious metal or from Patek Philippe, still trade at multiples of list. This guide sets out how the market got here, where it stood in September 2026, which watches carry a premium and which do not, what changed on the supply side, and what to check before you buy. Bizak & Co. sources all four brands to order; the pre-owned collection shows the kind of references we can seek.

Last reviewed on September 21, 2026 by Filip Biczak. Prices are dated observations, not quotes.

Who sets luxury watch prices?

Three parties do, and they rarely agree. The manufacturer sets the retail price and decides how many pieces each authorised dealer receives; for the four brands that dominate the conversation, Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille, that allocation is the real product, because demand for the headline references exceeds what the factories choose to make. Authorised dealers decide who gets those pieces, which is why waiting lists exist and why a relationship with a boutique is worth something. The secondary market, meaning grey dealers, auction houses and private sellers, then sets a second price for the same watch, and that second price can be below retail (most Datejusts, most dress watches), around retail (a black Submariner in 2026) or several times retail (a steel Nautilus, a Tiffany-dial 5711, most Richard Mille sports pieces). Auction results published by Phillips and Sotheby's are the only fully public prices in the market; everything else is an ask, a quote or a private sale.

How did the market get here? 2020 to 2026 in brief

• 2020 to early 2022. Factory closures during the pandemic cut supply while savings and asset prices rose. Steel sports watches from Rolex, AP and Patek became a liquid, tradeable asset class, and secondary prices roughly doubled for the most requested references. Patek Philippe discontinued the steel Nautilus 5711 in 2021, which added fuel.
• Spring 2022 to 2024. Secondary prices peaked around March and April 2022 and then fell for two years as interest rates rose and speculative buyers left. Steel Rolex, Royal Oak and Nautilus references gave back most of their pandemic premium, and some models dropped below the 2021 level. Retail prices kept rising throughout, so the gap between retail and secondary closed from both sides.
• 2025 to 2026. The decline flattened. Dealer asks for mainstream steel references have been broadly stable since 2025, with modest moves either way, while gold and precious-metal pieces have tracked the price of gold upwards. Rolex opened its Certified Pre-Owned programme through authorised dealers, which put an official floor under the pre-owned market for recent references. In the United States, tariff changes on Swiss imports during 2025 pushed retail prices up faster than in Europe.

The practical result is that a buyer in 2026 can obtain most steel sports watches at or near retail from the secondary market without waiting, which was not true in 2021, while the genuinely scarce references remain scarce and expensive.

Where the market stood in September 2026

The table below uses Bizak's sourced catalogue asks on September 21, 2026, sourced to order, as a dated snapshot of where popular references sat. They are asks, not sales, and they move.

Two patterns stand out. First, the premium scales with the brand's production: Rolex makes more than a million watches a year and its steel premiums are the smallest; Patek Philippe and Richard Mille make a fraction of that and their premiums are the largest. Second, within a brand the premium follows the specific reference, not the model name. A Submariner and a Datejust are both Rolex, but one carries a premium and the other often does not.

Which watches carry a premium and which trade below retail?

Premiums attach to references that are allocated at retail and requested by many buyers: the steel Daytona, the GMT-Master II in most bezel colours, the steel Royal Oak in 39 mm and 41 mm, every steel Nautilus and Aquanaut, and essentially the whole Richard Mille catalogue. Watches that trade at or below retail are the ones dealers can supply readily: most Datejust, Oyster Perpetual and Day-Date configurations after their first owner, gold Royal Oaks and Nautilus references in the larger sizes, and most Patek Philippe dress watches, which are superb value pre-owned precisely because they are not fashionable. The Rolex price guide, the Audemars Piguet price guide and the Patek Philippe price guide break each brand down by reference.

What changed in supply?

• Allocation is still the norm. Rolex, Patek and AP have not increased output to meet demand for the headline steel pieces, and boutiques still favour existing clients. Our Rolex waitlist guide explains how the process works in practice.
• Official pre-owned. Rolex Certified Pre-Owned, sold through authorised dealers with a Rolex warranty, gave the pre-owned market a brand-backed channel. It sells above independent dealer prices, which supports the whole market's floor.
• Brand-owned retail. Rolex's acquisition of Bucherer and the continued shift of AP and Patek towards boutiques mean more of the retail allocation is controlled directly by the manufacturers.
• Precious metals. Gold's rise since 2024 has lifted retail prices of gold watches at every brand, and pre-owned gold pieces have followed, which narrowed the historic discount on second-hand gold Rolex and AP references.
• Tariffs and currencies. US import tariffs on Swiss watches changed during 2025, and the brands responded with US price increases; a strong Swiss franc has done the same in other markets. The effect is regional price differences that a sourcing dealer can sometimes work around.

What changed in demand?

The speculative buyer of 2021, who bought to flip, has mostly gone, and the buyer of 2026 is more often a collector or a first-time owner who wants a specific watch to wear. That changes what sells. Smaller cases have come back: the 36 mm Explorer, the 39 mm Royal Oak, the 40 mm Nautilus and the 38 mm Richard Mille are all more requested than they were five years ago. Two-tone and yellow gold, out of fashion for two decades, are back, helped by the brands' own marketing. Colourful dials, green in particular, still command a premium over black on the same reference. And provenance matters more: a full set with box, papers and service history sells faster and for more than a watch-only example, which was not always true at the peak, when any example sold.

Is a luxury watch a good investment in 2026?

A watch is a good store of value and a poor speculation. Over long periods, allocated references from Rolex, Patek and AP have held or gained value in nominal terms, and a watch bought near retail and worn carefully rarely loses much. Over short periods the market can fall sharply, as 2022 to 2024 showed, and a watch bought at a large premium can take years to recover. The reliable approach is to buy the reference you want at a fair price with complete papers, hold it for years, and treat any gain as a bonus. If resale matters to you, ask for a written cash-buy assessment before you buy, so you know the spread between what you pay and what a dealer would offer today; our guide to selling a Rolex explains how that spread works.

Buying in the 2026 market: what to check

• The date on every price. Asks move monthly. A quote without a date, or a "market price" from a chart without a source, is not a price.
• Retail versus secondary. Know the current retail price from the brand's own site before you pay a premium, and know why the premium exists for that reference.
• Papers and warranty. For watches made in the last five years, the warranty card should match the serial on the case; for older watches, ask for the original papers or an extract from the archives where the brand offers one.
• Condition and service. Unpolished cases and original parts hold value; ask for the last service date and who performed it, and whether the movement is certified by COSC or the brand's own standard.
• Regional pricing. The same reference can differ by 10 to 20 percent between markets after tax and tariffs; a sourcing dealer can sometimes buy in the cheaper market.
• Exit price. Ask what the seller would pay to buy the watch back today. The gap tells you how liquid the reference is.
• Price against the band. A full-set allocated reference offered well under the going rate is the single most reliable warning sign.

Our authentication process describes what we inspect before dispatch.

Quick answers

Are luxury watch prices going down in 2026?

Secondary prices for most steel sports watches fell from their 2022 peak and have been broadly flat since 2025; retail prices keep rising. Gold and scarce references have held up better than mainstream steel.

Which luxury watches hold their value best?

Allocated references with limited supply: the steel Daytona and GMT-Master II, the steel Royal Oak, every steel Nautilus and Aquanaut, and most Richard Mille sports models. Mainstream dress references hold value less well but cost less to begin with.

Is it cheaper to buy a Rolex at retail or on the secondary market?

Retail is always cheaper if you can obtain the allocation; the secondary market charges a premium for immediacy. In 2026 that premium is small for a Submariner and large for a Daytona.

Why did luxury watch prices fall after 2022?

Rising interest rates and the exit of speculative buyers removed the demand that had doubled prices during the pandemic, while the brands kept producing and raising retail prices.

How much is a Rolex Submariner in 2026?

Bizak's sourced catalogue listed a brand-new Submariner 126610LN at US$15,400 on September 21, 2026, sourced to order; retail is lower but allocated.

Request a sourcing quote

Tell us the reference, preferred condition and year range, whether papers are required, and your budget and timing, through our sourcing enquiry form. We confirm the specific watch, photographs, papers and final price before you commit. Catalogue entries: Submariner 126610LN, Royal Oak 15510ST grey dial, Aquanaut 5167A-001; browse the Rolex collection, the Audemars Piguet collection, the Patek Philippe collection, the Richard Mille collection, or sell or trade your watch.

Related reading: Rolex watch prices · Rolex waitlist explained · Best first Rolex · Richard Mille price guide.