Are Watches a Good Investment in 2026? An Honest Guide

Are watches a good investment in 2026? For most buyers, no, not in the sense that a fund or a property is. A small group of steel sports references from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet has held or gained value over long periods, and those same references dropped hard from their 2022 peak before settling. The honest answer is that a well-chosen watch bought near retail is a store of value that you can wear, while a watch bought at a large secondary-market premium is a bet on demand staying where it is. This guide explains what happened to prices after the 2022 peak, which references have held value and why, what buying and selling actually costs, and how to choose if resale matters to you. Bizak & Co. sources to order; the Rolex collection lists the references most people mean when they ask this question.

Last reviewed on September 22, 2026 by Filip Biczak. Prices are dated observations, not quotes.

What happened to watch prices after the 2022 peak?

Secondary-market prices for steel Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet sports models rose steeply through 2021 and peaked in the spring of 2022. The drivers were low interest rates, stimulus-era cash, a boom in speculative buying by people who had never owned a mechanical watch, and retail waiting lists that pushed demand into the grey market. From mid-2022, rising rates, a weaker crypto market and a flood of speculators selling at the same time reversed the trend. Prices fell through 2023 and most of 2024, with the largest falls on the references that had risen most: the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15202 and 15500, and the Rolex Daytona 116500LN. By 2025 the market had found a floor for most references, and in 2026 pricing has been broadly stable, with the best references trading at a smaller premium to retail than in 2022 and the weaker ones at or below retail.

Two things did not change. Retail prices continued to rise every year, so the gap between a 2020 retail purchase and a 2026 retail price widened even where secondary prices fell. And the same handful of references remained hard to buy at an authorised dealer, which is why they still carry a premium at all. The Rolex price guide tracks the current picture by model.

Which watches have held value best?

The references that have held value are the ones with three properties at once: a brand with pricing power, a model that is difficult to buy new, and a design that has not changed much in decades. That combination describes a short list.

Outside this list, most luxury watches lose value the moment they leave the boutique, in the same way a car does. Dress watches, complicated pieces from smaller brands and limited editions with weak demand can sell for half their retail price on the secondary market. That is not a reason to avoid them; it is a reason to buy them because you want them, at a price that already reflects the drop.

Why do a few references appreciate while most depreciate?

A watch appreciates when demand for that specific reference exceeds the number the manufacturer chooses to make, and the manufacturer declines to raise production. Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet all manage supply deliberately. Rolex makes roughly a million watches a year, but the steel professional models are a fraction of that, and the company routes them through authorised dealers who allocate them to established clients. Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet make far fewer watches and are open about keeping it that way. When the brand also raises retail prices every year, the floor under secondary prices rises with it.

The second driver is discontinuation. When Rolex retired the 16610LV "Kermit", the 116710BLNR "Batman" and the 126710BLRO "Pepsi" on Jubilee, each rose because the supply was now fixed. The same happened when Patek stopped the 5711. Buying a current-production watch and hoping for a discontinuation is a guess; buying a recently discontinued one at a sensible price is closer to a strategy. Our guide to watch nicknames covers which discontinued references collectors track.

What does it really cost to buy and sell a watch?

The largest reason watches are a poor investment for most people is friction. A fund charges a fraction of a percent a year; a watch charges you at both ends.

• Buying. At retail you pay list price plus sales tax; in Miami-Dade that is 7 percent. On the secondary market you pay the dealer's margin, which is built into the ask, plus tax in most US states.
• Holding. Insurance runs roughly 1 to 2 percent of the insured value a year on a scheduled policy. A Rolex service every ten years and a Patek or AP service every five to seven years costs from the high hundreds to several thousand dollars.
• Selling. A dealer buying for cash needs a margin, so a cash offer typically sits well below the dealer's own selling price. Consignment costs a percentage of the sale. Auction houses charge the seller a commission and the buyer a premium of around 25 percent, which comes out of what a buyer will bid. Our guide to selling a Rolex works through each route.

Put together, a watch has to appreciate by something like 20 to 30 percent before you sell it for what you paid, once tax, the dealer spread and holding costs are counted. Very few references clear that bar within a few years; the ones that do are the ones in the table above, bought at or near retail.

Buying at retail versus buying on the secondary market

The retail route is the one where the investment argument genuinely works, and it works precisely because access is rationed. Our Rolex waitlist guide explains how allocation works in practice. For everyone who cannot wait, the secondary market is where the watch is, and the price should be judged against a dated band rather than against retail.

How do watches compare with other assets?

Over the long run, a diversified equity index has outperformed the broad watch market, and it has done so without insurance, servicing or the risk of theft. Where watches differ is in the shape of the return. Prices for the best references move in long, slow rises punctuated by a spike and a correction, as in 2021 to 2024, and they are uncorrelated with equities day to day. A watch is also a physical object you can enjoy, which no index fund offers. The sensible framing is that a good watch bought well is a durable asset that should not lose much, may gain slowly, and pays a dividend in wear. It is not a substitute for a pension.

Watches are also illiquid. Selling takes days to weeks through a dealer and months through auction, and the price you get depends on who is buying that month. In 2022 sellers found that the bid disappeared faster than the ask fell; anyone who needed to sell in a hurry took the hit.

What to check before buying a watch as an investment

• Buy the reference, not the story. The watches that hold value are known; a dealer promising that an obscure limited edition will appreciate is guessing.
• Full set. Box, warranty card and, for older watches, papers and service records add to resale and make the watch easier to sell. Rolex does not reissue cards.
• Condition. An unpolished case with sharp edges and an original bracelet is worth more than a polished one; a replaced dial or bezel insert costs more than it saves.
• Price against a dated band. Compare the ask with several dealers on the same day for the same configuration; a watch offered well under the band is the most reliable warning sign of a problem.
• Warranty status. A current-reference watch inside its five-year Rolex warranty, or a Patek with a valid certificate, sells more easily than one outside it.
• Authenticity. Use a dealer who inspects the movement, not just the exterior; our authentication process describes what we check.
• Exit plan. Know how you will sell before you buy: cash sale, consignment or auction each suit different watches and different timeframes.

What did Bizak's catalogue show on 22 September 2026?

As a dated reference point, on 22 September 2026 our sourced catalogue listed the Rolex Submariner 124060 at US$15,990 brand new and US$10,415 pre-owned, the Submariner 126610LN at US$15,400 new, the GMT-Master II 126710BLNR on Jubilee at US$16,274, the Daytona 126500LN black dial at US$27,899, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST black dial at US$56,650 and blue dial at US$70,555, and the Patek Philippe Nautilus 5811/1G at US$212,175, all sourced to order. Those figures describe what we saw that day and will move; the gap between the new and pre-owned Submariner is the clearest illustration of what a warranty card and unworn condition are worth.

Quick answers

Are luxury watches a good investment in 2026?

Only a short list of steel sports references from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet has held value reliably, and even those fell from their 2022 peak. Most luxury watches lose value on resale, so buy to wear and treat any gain as a bonus.

Which watches hold their value best?

The Rolex Submariner, Daytona and GMT-Master II, the Patek Philippe Nautilus and Aquanaut, and the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, especially recently discontinued references bought in full-set condition.

Did watch prices go down in 2023 and 2024?

Yes. Secondary-market prices for the most speculated references fell substantially from spring 2022 through 2024 before stabilising in 2025 and 2026. Retail prices kept rising throughout.

Is a Rolex a better investment than a Patek Philippe?

Rolex is more liquid and its premiums are smaller, so the downside is limited; Patek Philippe steel sports models have larger swings both ways. Neither is an investment in the financial sense unless bought at retail.

How much does it cost to sell a watch?

A dealer cash offer sits below the dealer's selling price by its margin, consignment charges a percentage of the sale, and auction houses charge both seller and buyer. Expect the round trip to cost 20 to 30 percent including tax and holding costs.

Request a sourcing quote or a cash-buy assessment

Tell us the reference, dial and condition you want, plus your budget and timing, through our sourcing enquiry form. We confirm the specific watch, photographs, card and final price before you commit. Catalogue entries: Submariner 124060, Daytona 126500LN black dial, GMT-Master II 126710BLNR Jubilee, Royal Oak 15510ST blue; browse the Rolex collection, the Patek Philippe collection, the Audemars Piguet collection, or sell or trade your watch. For retail context, Patek Philippe's collection pages and Audemars Piguet's collection pages list current models, and Phillips publishes results for the references that reach auction.

Related reading: Rolex price guide · Best first Rolex · Daytona 126500LN guide · Patek Philippe price guide.