Beyond the dial in 2026: how condition grades and regional demand set luxury watch prices

Two things decide the price of a luxury watch once the reference and the paperwork are settled: the condition of the specific example and where in the world it is being sold. This guide is about both. It sets out the five-grade condition scale dealers actually use (unworn, like new, excellent, good, fair), explains what polishing, replaced parts and a brand service do to each grade, shows how Bizak's catalogue separates brand new from pre-owned with dated October 10, 2026 asks, and then looks at how demand for the same reference differs between the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Asia, how currency and duty move the ask, and where auction results fit. Which documents prove provenance and how a dealer authenticates a watch are covered in our authentication and ownership costs guide; this piece picks up where that one stops. Bizak & Co. sources watches to order and grades every piece before it is offered; the pre-owned watches collection shows how the graded pieces are listed.

Last reviewed on October 10, 2026 by Filip Biczak. Prices are dated observations, not quotes.

What is a practical condition scale for a luxury watch?

There is no industry standard. Auction houses write prose condition reports, platforms use their own labels, and many dealers use nothing more precise than "excellent". The five grades below are the ones we apply, and they map closely to the language most serious dealers use. The point of a scale is not the label but the questions it forces: has the case been polished, is every part original to the watch, and has it been serviced by whom and when.

Two rules make the scale usable. A watch with a replaced dial can never be graded above good, whatever the rest looks like, because the dial is the component the market pays for. And "polished" is a fact to disclose, not a grade in itself: a single light refinish by the brand's own service centre leaves an excellent watch excellent; a second or third polish by a jeweller takes it to good.

What do polishing, replaced parts and a service do to each grade?

The three events that move a watch down the scale are also the three that owners least often record, so a buyer has to read them off the watch.

• Polishing. Metal is removed every time. On a Rolex Oyster case the tell is the transition between the brushed top of the lug and the polished flank: factory work leaves a sharp line, a refinish softens it. On a Royal Oak it is the bevel on the bezel and the links, which should be a flat, mirror-polished plane with a hard edge against the brushing. Rolex's own service includes refinishing unless the owner asks it not to, which is why its watch care and service page is worth reading before a watch goes in: a brand refinish is done to the original geometry, a jeweller's is not. Polishing moves a like-new watch to excellent and an excellent watch, if repeated, to good. It never moves a watch up.
• Replaced parts. A brand service replaces worn consumables (crystal, gaskets, bezel insert, sometimes hands) with current parts. On a modern watch inside its first decade that is invisible and harmless to the grade. On an older watch it is the difference between a collectable and an ordinary example: a 1990s Submariner with its original tritium dial and hands is excellent; the same watch with a service dial and Luminova hands is good at best, however clean. The grade follows the least original component.
• Service. A documented brand service with the receipt and the list of replaced parts raises buyer confidence and, on a watch out of warranty, supports the ask; the same service with no record is just a claim. A service that was declined on the brand's advice, or a watch running outside its tolerance on the timing machine, moves it down a grade because the next owner will pay for it. Our dial variants and provenance guide covers how the service history interacts with the premium for a rare dial.

How does Bizak's catalogue separate brand new from pre-owned?

Every catalogue entry carries a condition tag, and the tag drives the price. "Brand new" means an unworn current-production watch with a dated warranty card, sourced to order from our network and inspected before dispatch. "Pre-owned" means a watch we have graded ourselves on the scale above, and its listing carries the suffix "preowned" in the address so the two are never confused in search. Pre-owned pieces are listed at excellent or better unless the description says otherwise; anything we grade good is described part by part, and we do not offer fair examples at all. The table gives the asks our catalogue carried on October 10, 2026, all sourced to order; they describe what we saw that day and will move.

Read the table for what it shows rather than what it does not. On October 10, 2026 the catalogue did not hold the same reference in both conditions, so the gaps above mix condition with reference, generation and date. What they do illustrate is the shape of the market: a pre-owned steel Submariner of the previous generation at roughly four fifths of a brand-new current one, a discontinued green Submariner asked above new, and a Royal Oak market where the dial colour moves the brand-new ask by more than the step from new to excellent would. The 126610LN guide and the 15510ST guide track each reference in detail; the pre-owned Submariner collection and the Royal Oak collection list what we can seek.

How much does condition change the price of the same reference?

Less than most sellers hope and more than most buyers assume, and the answer depends on how freely the reference is available. For a current steel sports model that an authorised dealer will sell at retail with a wait, the brand-new ask sits at retail or at a premium set by the length of the wait; the like-new and excellent asks sit under it by the margin a buyer wants for taking on a used watch, and a watch that has been polished or has a replaced part sits under that again. For a discontinued or scarce reference the shape changes: supply is fixed, so the gap between unworn and excellent narrows, while the gap between excellent and good widens, because collectors competing for a finite number of original examples will pay for originality and will not pay for a refinished case. Vintage pushes this to its limit, where an unpolished case with an original dial can be asked at a multiple of a polished one with a service dial.

Three practical consequences follow. First, on a modern watch the warranty card and the box matter more than the difference between like new and excellent; price the set before the grade. Second, on a discontinued watch the grade matters more than the set; an extract or a replacement card can be obtained for some brands, an original dial cannot. Third, the premium for unworn is only worth paying on a reference you cannot otherwise obtain; on anything a dealer can source at retail, an excellent pre-owned example at a discount is the better buy for someone who intends to wear it. Our Rolex price guide explains how to read dated asks across these bands.

How does demand differ by region: United States, Europe, Middle East and Asia?

The same reference does not carry the same ask everywhere, and the differences are consistent enough to be worth knowing before you buy or sell across a border. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH publishes monthly export statistics by destination, and in recent years those figures have placed the United States as the largest single market for Swiss watch exports, with Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates close behind. Export figures measure new watches leaving Switzerland, not the secondary market, but the ranking is a fair proxy for where the deepest pools of buyers are.

The practical reading: a polished steel Rolex sells closest to its band in the United States and furthest below it in Japan; a gold Day-Date finds its best buyer in the Gulf; a vintage Patek Philippe with an extract does best at a European or Hong Kong auction. A sourcing dealer earns its margin partly by knowing where each watch is cheapest to buy and where it is most wanted.

How do currency and import duty move the ask?

Luxury watch prices are set in Swiss francs at the factory, translated into local retail lists by the brands, and traded on the secondary market mostly in US dollars. Three mechanisms move the ask between markets.

• Currency. When the dollar weakens against the franc, Swiss retail lists in the US tend to be raised and secondary asks follow; when the dollar is strong, a US buyer finds European and Japanese asks cheaper in dollar terms and arbitrage narrows the gap. A dated ask in one currency should always be read with the exchange rate of that date.
• Import duty and sales tax. United States duty on Swiss-made watches moved sharply during 2025 and was then renegotiated, so the rate that applies is the one in force on the day a watch clears customs, and it is charged on the declared value of the watch, not on the price you paid for it. The European Union adds value-added tax at the member state's rate on import; the United Kingdom does the same; the United Arab Emirates charges a low value-added tax; Hong Kong charges neither duty nor sales tax on watches. A watch bought abroad and carried home is not exempt from any of this, and insurers and brand service centres can see the import record.
• Tax-free export. A tourist buying at retail in Switzerland, the EU or Japan can usually reclaim the sales tax on departure, which is why boutique prices in those markets look low to a US buyer. The saving is real only if the duty at home is lower than the tax reclaimed, which after 2025 is not always the case for a US resident.

For a sourced purchase, ask the dealer to quote delivered to your door with duty and tax shown separately. A quote that is cheaper because it omits them is not cheaper.

Where do auction results fit in pricing a watch?

Auction results are the only public, dated, condition-described prices in the market, which makes them the best evidence for vintage and rare pieces and the worst for current steel sports models. A hammer price at Sotheby's or Phillips records what one buyer paid for one example on one day, with the condition report on the record, and the published total includes the buyer's premium, which the seller does not receive. Used properly, a result tells you the ceiling for an example in that condition with that provenance at that moment. Used badly, it is a number repeated without its condition report as if it applied to every example of the reference.

Three rules. Compare like with like: an unpolished full-set example at auction says nothing about a polished one without papers. Subtract the premium and add the seller's commission before treating a result as what a seller could net. And for current-production references, prefer dated dealer asks to auction results, because the auction sample is small, the lots are often chosen for their provenance, and the brand-new ask at a dealer is a better guide to the band. Where a current reference does appear at auction it is usually because of a rare dial or an unusual set, which our dial variants guide covers separately.

How should a seller grade a watch before asking for an offer?

A dealer's cash offer is built from the grade, the set and the region in which the dealer can resell, so a seller who grades honestly before asking gets a faster and higher offer than one who sends a photograph and the word "mint". The steps are the same ones we run when a watch comes in; our guide to selling a Rolex to a dealer explains how the offer is built from them.

1. Photograph the case edges in raking light. The lug transitions and the bezel bevel show polishing at once. Say whether the watch has been polished and by whom.
2. List every replaced part you know of. Crystal, insert, hands, clasp, bracelet. A service receipt with the parts list is worth more than a verbal assurance.
3. Record the service history with dates and names. Brand centre or independent, and when. No history on a watch over ten years old means the buyer prices in a service.
4. Assemble the set. Box, warranty card or certificate, booklets, spare links, hang tags and receipts. Photograph the card beside the serial on the watch.
5. Note the movement's behaviour. Running fast or slow, a loose rotor, a stiff crown. A dealer will put it on a timing machine; telling them first builds trust.
6. Decide where you are selling. A gold Day-Date offered to a dealer with Gulf clients and a steel Submariner offered to one with US clients each get a better offer than the reverse.

Buying checks by condition grade

• Unworn or like new. Card date and serial match; stickers, if claimed, are the factory ones; the bracelet has all its links and the spare links are in the box; the clasp shows no sizing marks.
• Excellent. Bevels sharp and brushing even under a loupe; the inspection record says whether the caseback was opened and what calibre was recorded; the pressure-test date is recent; the warranty or service receipt is in hand.
• Good. Every replaced part is named in writing; the dial and hands are confirmed original; the price sits below the excellent band by a margin that covers the parts, not just a token discount.
• Any grade. The ask is quoted with duty and tax for your country; the guarantee of authenticity is in writing; the dealer will tell you which region the watch came from and whether it has been imported before.
• Warning sign. A full-set example at a grade above what the photographs support, offered well under the band for its region, is the most reliable sign of a watch to walk away from.

Quick answers

What are the condition grades for a luxury watch?

There is no industry standard, but most dealers use five grades: unworn, like new, excellent, good and fair. The grade follows the least original component, so a replaced dial caps a watch at good and repeated polishing moves an excellent watch down a grade.

Does polishing reduce the value of a Rolex?

Yes, because metal is removed and the factory edges soften. A single light refinish by the brand's own service centre keeps an excellent watch excellent; repeated polishing by a jeweller moves it to good, and on a vintage watch an unpolished case can be worth a multiple of a polished one.

How much cheaper is a pre-owned watch than a brand-new one?

It depends on supply. For a freely available current reference, excellent pre-owned examples sit under the brand-new ask by the margin a buyer wants for a used watch. For a discontinued or scarce reference the gap narrows or reverses; on October 10, 2026 Bizak's catalogue asked more for a pre-owned Submariner 116610LV than for a brand-new 126610LN.

Which region pays the most for a luxury watch?

It varies by watch. Steel sports models find their deepest market in the United States, precious-metal and gem-set pieces in the Gulf, scarce current references and pristine full sets in Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, and vintage pieces with archive documents at European and Hong Kong auctions.

Are auction results a reliable guide to a watch's price?

For vintage and rare pieces they are the best public evidence, provided you read the condition report and remove the buyer's premium. For current steel sports models dated dealer asks are a better guide, because the auction sample is small and the lots are chosen for their provenance.

Request a graded sourcing or cash-offer quote

Tell us the reference, dial, metal, the grade you are looking for or selling, whether papers are required, your country of delivery and your budget through our sourcing enquiry form. We confirm the specific watch, its grade, photographs, inspection record, papers and the delivered price with duty and tax shown before you commit. Catalogue entries from this guide: Submariner 126610LN brand new, Submariner 124060 pre-owned, Royal Oak 15510ST black dial brand new; browse the pre-owned watches collection, the pre-owned Submariner collection, the Royal Oak collection, read how we grade on the authentication process page, or sell or trade your watch.

Related reading: Dial variants and provenance in 2026 · Authentication and ownership costs in 2026 · How to sell a Rolex to a dealer · Rolex price guide.